I get asked the question often. The word dead isn’t always put forward, but the intent is the same, and the conversation is posed by people who have a genuine concern.
Paper or Plastic: the Future of Book Publishing
More than ever, I am certain that there are people who are firmly committed to holding a parcel of paper and ink to read the words on the page. I am advised regularly that “I just can’t read a book on a screen.” On the other hand, there are people sitting in cars in the parking lot in front of this bookstore every day, caught up in electronics.
The Kindle, Nook, and iPads are not going away.
This, I believe, more than any other media change, defines the generations. Video games created some chalk-outlines into which some people fit and others did not – games, though, don’t appeal to everyone. Others grow out of them – for whatever reason.
The book survival question is important only to readers. There are plenty of folks with iPads who use them as yet another gaming device, and would have absolutely no reason to download a novel.
Readers will decide. Already there are fence-sitters, those comfortable with the technology, who embrace novelty and change, who have grown up in front of a screen and consider it as an obvious method for receiving education or entertainment. The fence-sitters can weigh one against the other, the plastic or paper dilemma, and make a decision.
My prediction is that in later years, there will be no fence-sitters. Those who are learning to read in this era will have no reservations regarding the screen and will view the book as an outdated delivery system. The landline telephone is in the same boat, and any surviving dial-phones (they were before touch-tones, as they were initially called…) will simply be held as oddities.
Books will continue to be published.
As long as there are wealthy politicians, film stars, and the occasional literary genius writing books, there will be a desire to have a physical copy of the work. It’s just not the same downloading your book to show it to friends and family. Regardless of the reading method, books are impressive on their own merit. They may not be produced in the quantity as today’s publishing totals, which are already low by comparison to previous years, but some will find their way onto UPS trucks from Amazon warehouses. Maybe by then, they’ll be so small as to be called warehuts.
As for the long-term prospect – I believe the book will take its place as an art form, like sculpture or paintings, and those who are appreciative of the media will collect them where possible, or visit them in museums.
Those places we currently call libraries.